21 Sept · 16:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1577
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mrowetz
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1610
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 66% (98)
Fair odds · Mrowetz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H16-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.