21 Sept · 16:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1515
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Neterda
LV
🇨🇿Ladislav Vosyka
ELO 1498
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Neterda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.