21 Sept · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Daniel Hyza
ELO 1618
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Brozek
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1640
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~72 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H38-42
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.