21 Sept · 19:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1663
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kocab
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1646
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kocab
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.18· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H26-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.