21 Sept · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1508
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dvorak
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1479
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (63)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H11-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.