21 Sept · 17:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1479
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Neterda
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1515
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Neterda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.