21 Sept · 16:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Daniel Hyza
ELO 1618
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Benes
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1646
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H15-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.