21 Sept · 16:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JC
🇨🇿Jiri Cerny
ELO 1478
FormWWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dvorak
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1479
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (57)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H18-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.