21 Sept · 15:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FT
🇨🇿Filip Theodor
ELO 1460
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Coufal
OC
🇨🇿Ondrej Coufal
ELO 1466
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🌟Theodor covers set handicap as underdog 69% (35)
Fair odds · Coufal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.09· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.