21 Sept · 17:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇨🇿Jiri Cerny
ELO 1481
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dvorak
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1515
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cerny🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (63)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.