22 Sept · 08:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1527
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1536
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H27-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.