22 Sept · 10:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1503
FormWLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Matus
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1434
FormWLLWW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Matus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (79)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)