22 Sept · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1615
FormLWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Krenek
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1536
FormWLLLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Moravec covers set handicap as underdog 65% (34)
Fair odds · Krenek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H23-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-19)