22 Sept · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1478
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1527
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kindl🌟Kindl goes over total as underdog 67% (76)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H14-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.