22 Sept · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1545
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Strelec
JS
🇨🇿Jan Sevecek
ELO 1539
FormLLWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sevecek🌟Sevecek covers set handicap as underdog 75% (24)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 39% · 2.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.