22 Sept · 08:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1545
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Strelec
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1503
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matus🌟Matus covers set handicap as underdog 66% (53)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H16-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.