22 Sept · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1521
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1626
FormLWLWW
41%
59%
🌟Stepien goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 65% · 1.53· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+105
H2H111-81
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+105)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (111-81)