22 Sept · 11:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1507
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Molka
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1499
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Molka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H49-49
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.