22 Sept · 15:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1438
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1475
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.