22 Sept · 15:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Borek Moravec
ELO 1729
FormWWWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Moravec
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1612
FormWWLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+117
H2H39-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (39-23)