22 Sept · 20:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JT
🇨🇿Jakub Travnicek
ELO 1571
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Travnicek
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1531
FormLLLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fojtik🌟Fojtik covers set handicap as underdog 70% (61)
Fair odds · Travnicek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.