22 Sept · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Vanous
ELO 1394
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ogrocki
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1438
FormWWWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vanous
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H21-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.