22 Sept · 21:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1360
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Ogrocki
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1438
FormWWWWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jokiel
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H27-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-13)