22 Sept · 20:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Stusek
ELO 1549
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stusek
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1531
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Fojtik covers set handicap as underdog 70% (61)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.