22 Sept · 18:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1634
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kosacky
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kosacky
ELO 1668
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brozek
Fair odds · Kosacky
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H127-73
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.