22 Sept · 19:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Michal Szostak
ELO 1479
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Patryk
KP
🇨🇿Kiejda Patryk
ELO 1532
FormLWWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Patryk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 12%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.