23 Sept · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1493
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Strelec
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1543
FormLWWLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jemelka🌟Jemelka covers set handicap as underdog 69% (48)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 45% · 2.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.