23 Sept · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1568
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lovl
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1519
FormWLWLW
54%
46%
🌟Neterda covers set handicap as underdog 65% (49)
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H21-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.