23 Sept · 08:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1489
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Balcar
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1477
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kral🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 69% (166)
Fair odds · Balcar
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.35· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H3-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.