23 Sept · 16:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1574
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Hons
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Motacek
ELO 1503
FormLWLWL
56%
44%
🌟Motacek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Hons
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+71
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)