23 Sept · 17:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MZ
🇨🇿Marek Zaskodny
ELO 1499
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Baros
AB
🇨🇿Antonin Baros
ELO 1530
FormWLWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zaskodny🌟Baros rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (33)
Fair odds · Baros
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H23-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.