23 Sept · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1546
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hons
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1574
FormLLLWW
48%
52%
🌟Chvatal covers set handicap as underdog 70% (23)
Fair odds · Hons
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.