23 Sept · 16:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1607
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skvrna
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1618
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sarganek🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (156)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H12-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.