23 Sept · 22:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1614
FormWLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Rek
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hrncir
ELO 1530
FormWWLLW
57%
43%
🌟Hrncir covers set handicap as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Rek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.87· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+84
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)