23 Sept · 17:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1546
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Chvatal
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Motacek
ELO 1503
FormLWLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Motacek🌟Chvatal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (27)
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.