23 Sept · 20:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1604
FormWLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sarganek
AB
🇨🇿Antonin Baros
ELO 1542
FormWWWLW
55%
45%
🌟Sarganek stays under total as favourite 64% (90)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H40-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-27)