23 Sept · 21:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1504
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chvojka
FT
🇨🇿Filip Theodor
ELO 1482
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Theodor🌟Theodor covers set handicap as underdog 69% (36)
Fair odds · Chvojka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.