23 Sept · 21:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VR
🇨🇿Vladislav Reska
ELO 1487
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Reska
FT
🇨🇿Filip Theodor
ELO 1482
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
🌟Theodor covers set handicap as underdog 69% (36)
Fair odds · Reska
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.