23 Sept · 22:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1494
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chvojka
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1504
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Chvojka rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (55)
Fair odds · Chvojka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.56· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.