24 Sept · 08:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1568
FormWWWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Chvatal
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1466
FormWLLLL
58%
42%
🌟Chvatal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (27)
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+102
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+102)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)