24 Sept · 08:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1610
FormLWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Krupnik
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1541
FormLLLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 66% (77)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H19-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-15)