24 Sept · 08:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1456
FormLLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1565
FormWWWLL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Vonasek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (108)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+109
H2H41-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+109)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-22)