24 Sept · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1593
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Skvrna
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1541
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (157)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H8-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.