24 Sept · 12:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1432
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sturma
ZC
🇨🇿Zdenek Chovancik
ELO 1421
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (89)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H7-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.