24 Sept · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1565
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vonasek
OF
🇨🇿Ondrej Fiklik
ELO 1534
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Vonasek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (108)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H53-64
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.