24 Sept · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zustina
ELO 1402
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chovancik
ZC
🇨🇿Zdenek Chovancik
ELO 1421
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
🌟Zustina covers set handicap as underdog 63% (19)
Fair odds · Chovancik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.