24 Sept · 17:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1400
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1516
FormLLWLL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+116
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+116)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)