24 Sept · 17:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇨🇿Miroslav Dolezal
ELO 1446
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dolezal
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1432
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Dolezal stays under total as favourite 65% (17)
Fair odds · Dolezal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.