24 Sept · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1516
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Moravec
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1486
FormLWWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 63% (78)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H17-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.