24 Sept · 17:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1486
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Hendrych
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hendrych
ELO 1536
FormWWWWL
46%
54%
🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 63% (78)
Fair odds · Hendrych
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H43-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.